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Forecasting of RMNCH Medical Products / Prévision de produits médicaux SRMNI - Shared screen with speaker view
John Durgavich
32:05
Hi all. I'm John Durgavich, Sr. Forecasting and Supply Planning Advisor for GHSC-PSM
Samba Diarra
32:10
Samba Diarra UNICEF Bamako
Joseph Monehin
32:33
Joseph Monehin,Senior Child Health Advisor, USAID /Co-Chair, Newborn and Child Health Commodities Subgroup of the Child Health Task Force.
Siobhan Vega
32:53
Hello! Siobhan Vega, GHSC-PSM Maternal and Child Health Task Order
Lauren Herzog
33:00
Hello, all! Lauren Herzog, Medicines, Technologies, and Pharmaceutical Services (MTaPS) Program.
Moktar Ahmed
33:02
Moktar , UNICEF Djibouti
Nicolas Sasa
33:20
Nicolas Sasa, Child Health Advisor- Momentum Project South Sudan
Sara Liaghati-Mobarhan
33:35
Hi all. Sara Liaghati-Mobarhan, UNICEF Supply Division | Product Innovation Centre, Newborn Health Innovation Specialist.
Coumbo BOLY
33:50
Bonjour à toutes et tous, BOLY de IRC Burkina Faso
Mariya Saleh
33:56
Mariya Saleh, GHSC-PSM Nigeria
Emma Stewart
34:21
Hi all. Emma Stewart, Market Shaping Associate Director at R4D
Maxime Irie
34:21
Maxime IRIE HSS specialist from CAR
Grace Eddy Amewu
34:31
I am Grace Eddy Amewu from Ghana. I work with Ghana Health Service and am the Programme Officer for IMNCI and School Health
Cyrille MASSAMBA
34:46
Cyrille MASSAMBA, MTaPS/DRC
Abebe Abela
34:54
Hello all, I am Abebe from Ethiopia MOH child health expert
Brenda Mshiu
36:13
Brenda Mshiu , Health Specialist - Save the Children Tanzania
Masood Anwar
37:00
Hi every one Masood Anwar, Director MNCH from Pakistan
Tweni
37:00
Hello everyone,
Syeda Mahvish Zahra
37:03
Dr Syeda Mahvish Zahra, Managing Director @Nutrition Times, Lecturer Allama Iqbal Open University Islamabad Pakistan
Tamah Kamlem
37:39
Tamah Kamlem, GHSC-PSM, Washington DC
Tweni
37:57
Hello everyone. Tweni, Living Goods Kenya.
LILIAN IGUBE
38:57
Hello everyone Lilian Igube from UNHCR South Sudan
Patrick Gaparayi
42:55
Feel free to type your questions/comments here. We will have a time to answer them. Thank you
Patrick Gaparayi
43:31
Veuillez utilizer cet onglet pour poser vos questions ou partager vos commentaires. Nous aurons le temps de les repondre. Merci
Kemi Sofa
44:26
Olukemi Sofa, GHSC - PSM Nigeria
Anthonia Ibeme
44:51
Anthonia Ibeme, PSM-Nigeria
Abdulhamid SALAH
45:50
Hi to every one, Abdulhamid Osman MNH Officer, Mogadishu, Somalia
LILIAN IGUBE
48:28
Please how do we get the presentation slides.
Sita Strother
49:06
We will share the presentation slides via email and on the Child Health Task Force website later this week
Jessica Ango
50:32
Hi everyone Jessica Ango IHP FCT, Nigeria
Sita Strother
50:34
Nous allons partager les diapositives sur e-mail et sur le site web du Groupe de travail sur la sante de L'enfant plus tard
Jane Briggs
58:26
Those 3 age ranges are according to current WHO recommendations for pneumonia management at facility level and WHO recommends 2 age bands for management at community level
Moktar Ahmed
01:03:48
Is it possible to have the Excell sheet ?
Andualem Oumer
01:04:00
Yes, it is possible
Andualem Oumer
01:04:16
we will be sending the templates and the examples to the group
John Durgavich
01:04:22
I think amoxicillin 250 mg is one of the tougher products to project since it can be used for several conditions (and I imagine some substitutability)
Jane Briggs
01:05:15
the link that will be shared after the webinar will include access to the supplement as well as the powerpoint algorithms and the excel sheets - both templates and examples with dummy data
Andualem Oumer
01:06:05
That is correct John - it is tough
Jane Briggs
01:06:09
@John - this is a very important point - the quantification team needs to consider all the different indications for amoxicillin - eg for SAM, PSBI etc
Jane Briggs
01:06:27
we just highlighted the example of pneumonia
Andualem Oumer
01:06:58
We encourage countries to forecast for all conditions as much as possible and also compare the forecast based on the morbidity methods with what they get from the consumption method to make necessary adjustments
Emma Stewart
01:09:18
Is QAT currently available for others to use?
John Durgavich
01:09:45
Yes, if you are interested
John Durgavich
01:10:34
It does require some training
Moktar Ahmed
01:11:09
do the training be online ? via zoom or Teams ?
John Durgavich
01:11:18
Yes
Moktar Ahmed
01:11:27
Super
Jane Briggs
01:11:44
please feel free to add your questions in the chat
John Durgavich
01:12:01
Can have separate discussion
John Durgavich
01:13:25
Could people please mute if not presenting?
Samba Diarra
01:13:26
not easy, demographic method needs a strong knowledge in HMIS and reporting.
Jane Briggs
01:14:25
but it is a useful method where data is lacking and for new products or those that are being scaled up
John Durgavich
01:17:13
Good point. Standardizing the treatment guideline is critical for efficient/effective forecasting! (anyone who has dealt with ARVs will confirm)
Lillian Gu
01:17:43
I wish there was the ability to react to messages in zoom - agree with all of these comments above!
Tweni
01:19:59
Can the excel tool help in forecasting based on consumption data or is it fixed to demographic data alone?
John Durgavich
01:21:20
We used to say, generally, that demographic forecasts produce bigger forecasts than methods relying on data closer to the end consumer (services based or logistics based) That would make the demographic forecast something of a ceiling. Does this assumption still hold?
Jane Briggs
01:21:39
we found in a number of countries that the supplement was useful to start discussions on updating treatment guidelines aligned with WHO recommendations
John Durgavich
01:22:12
In QAT, we use Weighted Absolute Percent Error to measure error
Anthonia Ibeme
01:24:55
Great feature in QAT!
Lillian Gu
01:25:25
😊
Rael Akoru
01:26:11
I have been struggling with internet connectivity, sorry team for joining late
Emma Stewart
01:26:53
Thanks very much for this presentation. Excited to see this expanded and updated resource for MNCH!
Lillian Gu
01:28:05
More information about QAT: https://www.ghsupplychain.org/quantificationanalyticstool
Moktar Ahmed
01:28:10
Thanks for this useful and very good presentation. Looking forward receiving the presentation as well tools.
Moktar Ahmed
01:28:13
Merci
Patrick Gaparayi
01:28:28
Thank you all for your participation. Please do reach out to us, if you need to share your work through the Child Health Task Force
Brenda Mshiu
01:28:38
Thank you very much , the session was very useful