Forecasting of RMNCH Medical Products / Prévision de produits médicaux SRMNI - Shared screen with speaker view
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Hi all. I'm John Durgavich, Sr. Forecasting and Supply Planning Advisor for GHSC-PSM
Samba Diarra UNICEF Bamako
Joseph Monehin,Senior Child Health Advisor, USAID /Co-Chair, Newborn and Child Health Commodities Subgroup of the Child Health Task Force.
Hello! Siobhan Vega, GHSC-PSM Maternal and Child Health Task Order
Hello, all! Lauren Herzog, Medicines, Technologies, and Pharmaceutical Services (MTaPS) Program.
Moktar , UNICEF Djibouti
Nicolas Sasa, Child Health Advisor- Momentum Project South Sudan
Hi all. Sara Liaghati-Mobarhan, UNICEF Supply Division | Product Innovation Centre, Newborn Health Innovation Specialist.
Bonjour à toutes et tous, BOLY de IRC Burkina Faso
Mariya Saleh, GHSC-PSM Nigeria
Hi all. Emma Stewart, Market Shaping Associate Director at R4D
Maxime IRIE HSS specialist from CAR
Grace Eddy Amewu
I am Grace Eddy Amewu from Ghana. I work with Ghana Health Service and am the Programme Officer for IMNCI and School Health
Cyrille MASSAMBA, MTaPS/DRC
Hello all, I am Abebe from Ethiopia MOH child health expert
Brenda Mshiu , Health Specialist - Save the Children Tanzania
Hi every one Masood Anwar, Director MNCH from Pakistan
Syeda Mahvish Zahra
Dr Syeda Mahvish Zahra, Managing Director @Nutrition Times, Lecturer Allama Iqbal Open University Islamabad Pakistan
Tamah Kamlem, GHSC-PSM, Washington DC
Hello everyone. Tweni, Living Goods Kenya.
Hello everyone Lilian Igube from UNHCR South Sudan
Feel free to type your questions/comments here. We will have a time to answer them. Thank you
Veuillez utilizer cet onglet pour poser vos questions ou partager vos commentaires. Nous aurons le temps de les repondre. Merci
Olukemi Sofa, GHSC - PSM Nigeria
Anthonia Ibeme, PSM-Nigeria
Hi to every one, Abdulhamid Osman MNH Officer, Mogadishu, Somalia
Please how do we get the presentation slides.
We will share the presentation slides via email and on the Child Health Task Force website later this week
Hi everyone Jessica Ango IHP FCT, Nigeria
Nous allons partager les diapositives sur e-mail et sur le site web du Groupe de travail sur la sante de L'enfant plus tard
Those 3 age ranges are according to current WHO recommendations for pneumonia management at facility level and WHO recommends 2 age bands for management at community level
Is it possible to have the Excell sheet ?
Yes, it is possible
we will be sending the templates and the examples to the group
I think amoxicillin 250 mg is one of the tougher products to project since it can be used for several conditions (and I imagine some substitutability)
the link that will be shared after the webinar will include access to the supplement as well as the powerpoint algorithms and the excel sheets - both templates and examples with dummy data
That is correct John - it is tough
@John - this is a very important point - the quantification team needs to consider all the different indications for amoxicillin - eg for SAM, PSBI etc
we just highlighted the example of pneumonia
We encourage countries to forecast for all conditions as much as possible and also compare the forecast based on the morbidity methods with what they get from the consumption method to make necessary adjustments
Is QAT currently available for others to use?
Yes, if you are interested
It does require some training
do the training be online ? via zoom or Teams ?
please feel free to add your questions in the chat
Can have separate discussion
Could people please mute if not presenting?
not easy, demographic method needs a strong knowledge in HMIS and reporting.
but it is a useful method where data is lacking and for new products or those that are being scaled up
Good point. Standardizing the treatment guideline is critical for efficient/effective forecasting! (anyone who has dealt with ARVs will confirm)
I wish there was the ability to react to messages in zoom - agree with all of these comments above!
Can the excel tool help in forecasting based on consumption data or is it fixed to demographic data alone?
We used to say, generally, that demographic forecasts produce bigger forecasts than methods relying on data closer to the end consumer (services based or logistics based) That would make the demographic forecast something of a ceiling. Does this assumption still hold?
we found in a number of countries that the supplement was useful to start discussions on updating treatment guidelines aligned with WHO recommendations
In QAT, we use Weighted Absolute Percent Error to measure error
Great feature in QAT!
I have been struggling with internet connectivity, sorry team for joining late
Thanks very much for this presentation. Excited to see this expanded and updated resource for MNCH!
More information about QAT: https://www.ghsupplychain.org/quantificationanalyticstool
Thanks for this useful and very good presentation. Looking forward receiving the presentation as well tools.
Thank you all for your participation. Please do reach out to us, if you need to share your work through the Child Health Task Force
Thank you very much , the session was very useful